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Topic: Completed foosball assignment (the questionnaires)

Author: Pixel Original Message Posted: Dec 19 2011 10:43AM

Hello all,

As promised, you can see the completed assignment at the link below. I've also pasted a summary of the findings for those who don't wish to skim through the whole thing. Thanks for all your help!

Summary of Findings

The expert task of 3-bar shooting in foosball was successfully elicited and modelled.

38 respondents from various locations throughout the world filled out the questionnaire. Approximately 47% of respondents indicated that they felt they were reasonably aware of how much time their scoring lane had been open for after a goal. From our SA analysis in section 7, it can be seen that the experts that were evaluated were approximately able to estimate this value 43 and 54% of the time, respectively. Though the small sample size is acknowledged, it would appear that respondents seem to have overestimated their ability to accurately estimate the percentage of time that the hole they scored on had been open.

Of those determined to be experts from the questionnaire, vocabulary-scaling results were calculated and assessed. “Smart” was rated as the best descriptor of effective 3-bar shot decisions, while “stubborn” was rated as the worst; “smart” was also rated as the best descriptor of effective defense, while “repetitive” was rated as the worst; “decision-making” was rated as the most valuable skill in achieving success at the highest levels of foosball, while “using your opponent’s strengths/weaknesses” was rated as the least valuable.

The analysis of knowledge elicitation garnered from expert foosball players regarding 3-bar shooting resulted in the creation of both a Decision Action Diagram and a Decision Ladder. These analyses illustrated that there are a large number of subtle factors that are involved in influencing 3-bar shot decisions, including opponent characteristics, game characteristics, self-assessment, defense pattern and timing, shot type, and shot power.

Two expert players were recorded playing a match against each other, and a small part of their situation awareness during 3-bar shooting was measured and analyzed. It was shown that levels 1 and 2 of SA (perception and comprehension) were illustrated by the experts; their estimates of the percentage of time that the lane they scored on was open for were relatively higher than chance would indicate (42.86% and 53.85% vs. 20%). Additionally, the highest level of SA (projection) was exemplified by the experts being able to correctly predict which of the shooting lanes would be open for the highest percentage of time; once again, their prediction rate was relatively higher than that of random chance (45.45% and 33.33% vs. 20%).

The results of a binary logistic regression on the effect of correct prediction of the major open shooting lane on the shooter’s proficiency to score indicated that there was no significant effect (p=0.916, OR 1.07). A shooter who made a correct prediction has odds only 1.07 times larger of scoring a goal than a shooter who made an incorrect prediction. This may be due to the fact that, some of the time, even though expert shooters are aware of which hole is the largest, they will choose to shoot at a hole that is open for a lower percentage of the time for various strategic reasons.

Author: Slow. Period. Reply #1 Posted: Dec 25 2011 10:49PM

Whoa. I read most of the linked paper. What does it mean to the layperson?

Author: hardboiled Reply #2 Posted: Dec 28 2011 10:09AM

if I may paraphrase, I figure:

players believe they are better than they actually are, and that quantifying perception is difficult.

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